Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Economic Development - Strategies for Sustainable Development

Economic Development - Strategies for Sustainable Development

Introduction

Which strategies and policies are best for an individual country wishing to see sustained economic growth and development? Remember that growth and development are not the same!
"Never before in history has the dream of eliminating global poverty been so attainable, yet seemed so elusive. We live in a world where the reach of technology and markets are global, and yet more than a billion men, women, and children live in abject poverty, devoid of their benefits. How can that possibly be? In an age of plenty, what deprives people of adequate food, shelter, clean water, education, good health and enough income to live on with dignity? What can governments, international agencies, and non-governmental organizations do to make the dream a reality?”
Source: Professor Dani Rodrik. Harvard

The role of the state: Throughout much of the 1960s and 1970s, traditional development thinking had been that government/state control and economic planning, high levels of public investment and protection from the volatility of the world market using protectionism was the best recipe for promoting development.
Self-sufficiency was the main goal including investment in import-substitution industries - so foreign trade was seen as a hindrance and therefore a tax opportunity to raise revenues for the government.
In the 1980s and 1990s a new pro-market doctrine gained momentum supported by the work of institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This approach advocatedmarket-friendly and open-border policies including cuts in import tariffs and increasing cross-border flows of financial capital and labour.
The core idea behind increasing openness in the world economy was that developing countries stronger engagement with the developed world allows them to mimic and develop the technologies of the West, raise productivity and drive per capita incomes higher.

Development Challenges: Escaping the Middle Income Trap

The middle income trap exists for some countries that make significant progress in reducing extreme poverty and experience structural change and growth but then find it difficult to make the climb from being a middle-income country to achieve high-income fully-developed status. GDP growth rates often slow down and a country can struggle to build and maintain international competitiveness.  Research from the World Bank finds that only 13 of the 101 countries deemed to be middle-income countries in 1960 had achieved high-income levels in 2011. Different studies find different thresholds for where growth tapers off, ranging from $8,500 to $18,500 at 2010 prices, adjusted for purchasing power parity.
Possible Causes of the Middle-Income Trap
Strategies for Avoiding the Middle Income Trap
Key to avoiding the trap is for each country to find the right mix of demand and supply-side policies to sustain a further lift in their per capita incomes and to achieve balanced growth sourced from domestic and overseas markets. Every country has a different set of economic, social, cultural, demographic and political circumstances so there is no unique policy mixes to avoid the middle income trap – some of the approaches often mentioned include the following:
  • The growth that brings a country out of extreme poverty is not always the type of growth that makes a country richer and lifts their per capita income above middle-income levels
  • The middle income trap is largely the result of a country’s inability to continue the process of moving from low value-added to high value-added industries
  • The advantages of low-cost labour and imitation of foreign technology can disappear when middle- and upper-middle-income levels are reached
  • The focus switches towards improving competitiveness rather than narrow emphasis on input-driven growth (i.e. just adding more land, labour and capital into the production process)
  • Many middle-income countries experience a “growth slowdown”. Leading economist, Professor Barry Eichengreen has found that growth slowdowns typically occur at per capita incomes of about $16,700 in 2005 constant international prices. At that point, the growth rate of GDP per capitaslows from 5.6 to 2.1 percent, or by an average of 3.5 percentage points
Case Study: Malaysia attempts to break the middle income trap
  • The Malaysian economy achieved rapid growth during the period 1990-97 with annual increases in real GDP close to 10%. The economy then suffered a recession in 1998 because of the Asian financial crisis before starting a recovery. But growth rates since then have been substantially lower – averaging only 4.3% pa from 2001-2009.
  • Our chart below confirms this and shows also that capital investment spending as a share of GDP has dropped from over 40% to 15% in 2009. Malaysia can still reach her target of becoming a high income developed country by 2020; indeed the government has an ambitious five year national economic plan that includes a target of doubling per capita incomes.
Malaysian growth potential:
  • youthful population  - 31% below the age of 14 , 5% the population older than 65
  • Export driven economy spurred by high technology, knowledge-based, capital-intensive industries
  • A leading exporter of semiconductor devices, hard disks, audio/video products and air conditioners
  • Tourism regarded as a key growth and development industry – now supported by increased infrastructure investment. Malaysia has 32 airports with paved runways + 83 with unpaved runways
  • Focus on giving the private sector a bigger role in driving growth and in attracting FDI
Malaysia ranks well in terms of global competitiveness and the chances of breaking the middle-income trap: The 2012 Global Competitiveness Index ranked Malaysia as follows (ranked out of 142 countries):
  • Institutions:                               30/142
  • Infrastructure:                            26/142
  • Macroeconomic environment:    29/142
  • Health and primary education:    33/142
  • Technological readiness:           44/142
  • Higher education and training:    38/142
Malaysia’s overall global competitiveness ranking for 2012 was 21 out of 142 countries

Monday, September 22, 2014

consumers surplus, IGCSE,GCEO NOTES

Consumer surplus

When there is a difference between the price that you pay in the market and the value that you place on the product, then the concept of consumer surplus becomes a useful one to look at.
  • Consumer surplus is a measure of the welfare that people gain from consuming goods and services
  • Consumer surplus is the difference between the total amount that consumers are willing and able to pay for a good or service (indicated by the demand curve) and the total amount that they actually do pay (i.e. the market price).
  • Consumer surplus is shown by the area under the demand curve and above the equilibrium price as in the diagram below.
Consumer surplus
Consumer surplus and price elasticity of demand
  1. When the demand for a good or service is perfectly elastic, consumer surplus is zero because the price that people pay matches what they are willing to pay. 
  1. In contrast, when demand is perfectly inelastic, consumer surplus is infinite. Demand does not respond to a price change. Whatever the price, the quantity demanded remains the same. Are there any examples of products that have such zero price elasticity of demand?
  1. The majority of demand curves are downward sloping. When demand is inelastic, there is a greater potential consumer surplus because there are some buyers willing to pay a high price to continue consuming the product. This is shown in the next diagram.
Consumer surplus
Changes in demand and consumer surplus

  • When there is a shift in the demand curve leading to a change in the equilibrium market price and quantity, then the level of consumer surplus will change too
  • In the left hand diagram, following an increase in demand from D1 to D2, the equilibrium market price rises to from P1 to P2 and the quantity traded expands. There is a higher level of consumer surplus because more is being bought at a higher price than before.
  • In the diagram on the right we see the effects of a cost reducing innovation which causes an outward shift of market supply, a lower price and an increase in the quantity traded in the market. As a result, there is an increase in consumer welfare shown by a rise in consumer surplus.
Consumer surplus can be used frequently when analysing the impact of government intervention in any market – for example the effects of indirect taxation on cigarettes consumers or the introducing of road pricing schemes such as the London congestion charge or a rise in air passenger duty.

Friday, September 19, 2014

Capital Investment,IGCSE,GCEO

Capital Investment

Introduction
Investment involves buying capital goods to provide us with goods and services in the future
Investment is a decision to postpone consumption and to accumulate capital which can lift an economy’sproductive potential.
Net and gross investment
  • Net investment = gross investment minus replacement investment required to replace obsolete capital. The level of net investment tells us what is happening to the stock of fixed capital
  • Gross fixed investment is spending on fixed assets including buildings, plant and vehicles
Factors that affect investment demand 
Profit-seeking businesses will be prepared to go ahead with an investment if they believe that it will - over its projected lifetime - yield a real rate of return greater than if the money had been invested in the next best alternative way. Opportunity cost is a useful idea to use here.
Private sector businesses usually focus on these objectives when investing in new capital inputs:
  1. Improving productivity / efficiency to drive down unit costs and achieving economies of scale
  2. Investing in capital embodies the most recent technological improvements
  3. Expanding capacity to meet rising actual demand and to supply to new markets (e.g. exports)
  4. Increasing capacity in advance of an expected increase in market demand (i.e. the accelerator)
  5. Replacing obsolete capital equipment and buildings
Social cost benefit analysis
For government sector investment such as new roads, schools and prisons, priorities may be subtly different. Public sector capital projects are still subject to tests about their expected rates of return and thecost-benefit analysis will include estimates of the social costs and benefits of the investment rather than a narrow focus on private costs and benefits.
Returns to an investment project
  • The expected returns from capital investment are determined by the demand for and the price of the output generated by an investment and by the costs of production
  • A rise in demand will increase the revenue streams that a business can expect from a new project
  • A change in the costs of purchasing capital inputs the costs of training workers to use new capital and in maintaining the capital stock will impact on the expected rate of return
The importance of business expectations and uncertainty
  • One of the important lessons of Keynesian economics is the crucial role played by business ‘animal spirits’ in determining how much firms are willing to commit to capital spending
  • There is always uncertainty about the expected rate of return particularly when market demand is volatile and sensitive to changes in interest rates, the exchange rate and real incomes
  • The expected rate of return from an investment is also influenced by the rate at which a new capital project depreciates over time and the effects of changes in corporation tax on profits
The marginal efficiency of capital (MEC) – the demand curve for investment
The marginal efficiency of capital (MEC) is the rate of interest, which makes an investment project viable “at the margin”. In the diagram above, at lower rates of interest (i.e. R2) the cost of borrowing money is lower and the opportunity cost of using retained profits as a source of finance is reduced. A fall in interest rates should lead to an expansion along the investment demand curve. Similarly higher interest rates (R3) may lead to some projects being postponed or cancelled.
  • For the UK, recent evidence suggests that the demand for new capital goods is interest rate inelastic. Partly this is because many firms prefer to use the capital market through the issue of new shares and bonds to raise funds for investment rather than relying on bank loans.
  • But the rate of interest can and does affect capital investment decisions – perhaps through its effect on confidence and also expectations of changing demand and the links between interest rates and the exchange rate.
The Accelerator Model
  • The accelerator suggests a positive relationship between investment and the growth of demand
  • Accelerator theories assume that for a business there is a desired capital stock for a given level of output and interest rates. A rise in output or a fall in demand may prompt increased levels of investment as firms adjust to reach the new optimal capital stock level
  • The accelerator model works on the basis of a fixed capital to output ratio. For example if demand in a given year rises by £4 million and each extra £1 of output requires an average of £3 of capital inputs to produce this output, then the net level of investment required will be £12 million
  • Consider the diagram below that shows an outward shift of AD that then causes an expansion of production, higher profits and prompts an increase in planned investment at each rate of interest. This boost in demand and output is said to bring about a positive ‘accelerator effect’
  • One criticism of this simple accelerator model is that the capital stock of a business can rarely be adjusted immediately to its desired level because of ‘adjustment costs’ and ‘time lags’. The adjustment costs include the cost of lost business due to installation of new equipment or the financial cost of re-training workers.
  • Firms will usually make progress towards achieving an optimum capital stock rather than moving smoothly to a new optimal size of plant and machinery. The time lags might be caused by supply-bottlenecks in industries that manufacture buildings and items of capital equipment and technology.
  • A further criticism of the accelerator model is that it ignores the spare capacity that a business might have at their disposal. At the end of a recession, businesses are operating below capacity limits and if demand then picks up in the recovery, they make more intensive use of existing capacity.
Business profitability
Business profits play an important role in allocating resources – for example, higher profits provide the funds for capital investment and also for research and development projects
Profits tend to follow a cyclical pattern – they fall during a recession or an economic slowdown. And they recover during phases of stronger economic growth

Nature and causes of fluctuation in Economic Activities,Economic Cycles,Trade Cycles,IGCSE,GCEO EXAM NOTES

Introduction

Britain has just suffered one of the deepest slumps in her post-1945 history; the Euro Area economies have struggled to climb out of recession amid unprecedented levels of financial turbulence and the crippling effects of high private and public sector debts
Many of the world’s richest countries have witnessed damaging contractions in activity since 2008. Few nations have escaped – although countries such as Australia, Poland, Norway and Canada seem to have emerged from the global financial crisis (GFC) in relatively good shape.
There are major doubts about the likely pace of growth for advanced nations. The new normal growth rate may be lower than in the last twenty years with important consequences for living standards and the ability of sovereign governments to extract them from the debt crisis.
We have had three recessions in the UK since the early 1980s, the most recent started in the spring of 2008 and real GDP fell by more than 4.5% in 2009 and - from peak to trough – the recession led to a 6% fall in national output.
In contrast, between 1993 and 2008 Britain enjoyed a period of sustained growth combined with low inflation and falling unemployment – an era once dubbed by the Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King as the ‘NICE’ decade, NICE standing for ‘non-inflationary continuous expansion’. This came to an abrupt halt in 2007 when global inflationary pressures soared and the world economy was shocked by thesub-prime crisis and the ensuing credit crunch and downturn.
What causes the economic cycle?
For A2 it is important to grasp the dynamic causes of different stages of the cycle. And to understand how macro developments in one country/region impact on other economies through trade, capital and other resource flows.  When looking at the causes of cyclical changes in production, incomes and jobs there are two main approaches:
  • Endogenous models explain cyclical fluctuations in terms of internal events or policies i.e. changes which lie within the economic system
  • Exogenous models argue that turning points in an economic cycle happen because of externaldemand-side or supply-side ‘shocks’ from beyond the economic system. These shocks create a disequilibrium for an economy and lead output and prices to deviate from a forecast path
Endogenous Models
The Stock Cycle
  • When demand is strong and running ahead of supply, stocks fall and this is a signal either to raise prices and/or to expand production. Re-stocking can be a way out of a recession.
  • Consider the car-scrappage scheme in the UK which was introduced as a way of boosting demand for new vehicles during the recession. This £2,000 cash incentive lead to a spike in demand some of which was met by selling vehicles stuck in vast car parks adjacent to the assembly plants.
  • Some of the extra spending on new vehicles will have necessitated a rise in demand for components used in making a new car – there was a positive impact on supply-chain businesses and a rise in demand for stocks leading to an injection of extra incomes in the vehicle industry.
In the early stages of a recession, any slump in consumer demand will cause businesses to cut back on output so as to reduce the volume of stocks. We saw this effect at work in 2008-09 as the UK recession became a reality – consider the evidence from the chart below.
The chart shows “de-stocking”, in the 1st quarter of 2009, the reduction in the value of stocks amounted to more than £5bn. As British-based carmakers produced fewer cars and house-builders cut back on the number of new homes being built, so the derived demand for cement, bricks, glass, steel, rubber and other raw materials and component parts suffered. 
Key point: Changes in the stock cycle have important multiplier effects on supply-chain industries.
The use of ‘just-in-time’ (JIT) stock delivery systems in manufacturing has reduced the need for businesses to hold high stocks of intermediate products. It is now easier for supply to match changes in demand. For example, stocks tend to be less important in the service sector, which now accounts for more than 75 per cent of UK national output.
2. Fluctuations in one or more components of aggregate demand (AD)Movements in real GDP in the short term are mainly due to changes in the components of AD and shifts in short-run aggregate supply(SRAS).  
As with most of the advanced economies, UK household consumption is the largest element accounting for over 65% of spending on goods and services.
Here is a way of breaking down the aggregate demand calculation:
  1. Domestic demand                           = C + I + G
  2. External demand                             = X-M (also known as net trade)
  3. GDP (Aggregate demand)            = C+I+G+X-M
For some countries domestic demand is a high % of total spending (e.g. the USA). In contrast in China, the economy has been driven forward by high trade and current account surpluses and domestic spending has been  lower – the Chinese government wishes to boost consumer spending and rely less on exports in order to sustain here fast rate of economic growth in the years ahead.

Recap on the main Stages of the Cycle

Boom
boom happens when real GDP grows faster than the trend growth rateover a number of years. In a boom phase, AD is high and businesses expand output and employment and may also raise profit margins by increasing prices - causing cost-push and demand-pull inflation. The main characteristics of a boom are:
  • A tightening of the labour market: Measured by the rate of unemployment or the number of unfilled job vacancies.
  • High demand for imports: Demand increases due to a high marginal propensity to import.
  • Public finances: An expansion provides a “fiscal dividend” to the government because tax revenues will be rising as people are earning and spending more. Business profits will be increasing and state spending on welfare tends to fall. A boom can lead to a ‘fiscal drag’ effect with tax revenues rising more quickly than the economy is growing.
  • Strong company profits and investment: An upturn leads to higher profits & investment – this is known as the accelerator effect and you will have covered this at AS level.
  • Cyclical boost to productivity: An expanding economy is good news for productivity because businesses are using labour resources more intensively. Productivity growth tends to be pro-cyclical.
  • A risk of higher inflation: Demand-pull and cost-push inflation can occur if AD exceeds potential GDP over time leading an economy to operate with a positive output gap.
Slowdown
slowdown occurs when real GDP expands but at a reduced pace – e.g. the UK economy in 2008
Recession
  • The standard definition of a recession is ‘two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth’ but a more inclusive definition is “a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators.”
  • A depression is a persistent downturn in output and jobs with an economy operating well below its productive potential and where there can be powerful deflationary forces at work. As a rule of thumb, a depression occurs when there is a fall in real GDP of more than 10 per cent from the peak of the cycle to the trough.
Symptoms of a recession
There are many symptoms of a recession – here is a selection of key indicators:
  1. A fall in purchases of components and raw materials from supply-chain businesses
  2. Rising unemployment and fewer job vacancies for those looking for work
  3. A rise in the number of business failures
  4. A contraction in consumer spending & a rise in the percentage of income saved (savings ratio)
  5. Falling private sector capital spending due to weak demand, deteriorating animal spirits, low profits and rising spare capacity
  6. A drop in the value of exports and imports of goods and services especially for countries with many industries exposed to changing demand in the world economy
  7. Price discounts offered by businesses and de-stocking as businesses look to cut unsold stocks
  8. Government tax revenues fall and the budget (fiscal) deficit and government debt grows quickly
The UK recession of 2008-10 was a result of a mix of internal and external factors – among them:
  • The end of the property boom – falling house prices hit wealth and led to a large contraction in new house building, many thousands of jobs were lost in the construction industry
  • Reductions in real disposable incomes due to wages rising less quickly than prices
  • The lagged effects of rising interest rates in 2007-08 (a tightening of monetary policy caused by rising food and energy prices and inflation above target)
  • A sharp fall in consumer confidence – made worse by the rise in unemployment
  • External events – such as recession in trading partners including the USA (which accounts for 15% of UK trade) and the Euro Area (55% of UK trade). Falling exports hit manufacturing industry hard
  • Cut-backs in production led to a negative multiplier effect causing a decline in sales and profits for supply-chain businesses. This has contributed to rising unemployment.
  • The credit crunch caused the supply of credit to dry up affecting many businesses and home-owners. And falling profits and weaker demand has caused a fall in capital investment – known as thenegative accelerator effect. There are few signs of a large recovery in bank lending especially to small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs)
The Output Gap
How much spare capacity does an economy have to meet a rise in demand? How close is an economy to operating at its productive potential? Has the recession had a permanent effect on our ability to supply goods and services? These sorts of questions link to an important concept – the output gap
The output gap is the difference between the actual level of national output and its potential level and is usually expressed as a percentage of the level of potential output.
Negative output gap – downward pressure on inflation
The actual level of real GDP is given by the intersection of AD & SRAS – the short run equilibrium. If actual GDP is less than potential GDP there is a negative output gap. Factor resources such as labour and capital machinery are under-utilised and the main problem is higher than average unemployment.
More people out of work indicate an excess supply of labour, which means there is downward pressure on real wages. In the next time period, a fall in real wage rates shifts SRAS downwards until actual and potential GDP are identical – assuming labour markets are flexible.
Positive output gap – upward pressure on inflation
If actual GDP is greater than potential GDP then there is a positive output gap. Some resources including labour are likely to be working beyond their normal capacity e.g. making extra use of shift work and overtime. The main problem is likely to be an acceleration of demand-pull and cost-push inflation. Shortages of labour put upward pressure on wage rates, and in the next time period, a rise in wage rates shifts SRAS upwards until actual and potential GDP are identical – assuming labour markets are flexible.
Recession and the output gap
  • The UK will operate with a large negative output gap for some time.  But much depends on whether the recession will do long-term damage to our productive capacity.
  • This might arise from a rise in business failures and people leaving the labour market if they suffer long periods out of work (long term structural unemployment). This is known as a hysteresis effect
When a business is operating at less than 100% capacity, it is said to have “spare capacity”.
Demand factors:
  • Lower demand due to a decline in consumption or demand for raw materials
  • Loss of market share due to poor marketing or competitors introducing better products
  • Seasonal variations in demand - i.e. temporary spare capacity during off-peak times
Supply factors:
  • Increase in capacity not yet matched by increased demand
  • Because new technology has been introduced in anticipation of higher demand
  • Improvements in productivity mean capacity increases for a given level of demand
Spare capacity allows businesses to respond to an unexpected increase in demand, when there isproductive slack, i.e. supply is price elastic. It also provides time for maintenance, repairs and employee training.
But it can also lead to inefficiency, which makes a business less competitive - and operating below capacity means higher unit costs because fixed costs are being spread over a reduced volume of output. This implies lower profitability than could be achieved.


Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Theories of production

Theory of production means knowledge of what is permanent and normal in industrial production. Traditionally, this knowledge has been accumulated in tacit form in the professional skill of industrial managers and artesans, but today more and more of it is being documented in writing by researchers.
Most studies of production use either one of two alternative approaches, that is, they have either descriptive or normative purpose, as can be seen in the diagram on the right. The two resulting theory paradigms differ quite much from each other even when the object of study is the same.
Descriptive theory contains knowledge about past or present production but does not much help for modifying it to correspond better to latest requirements. Academic or historical studies are often of this type. They are sometimes categorized in two types: extensive studies of a large number of cases, and intensive studies of one or a few cases.
Normative theory of production contains generally applicable knowledge and tools that can be used in the management of production, especially for optimizing existing production and planning new production. Research for creating normative theory is usually extensive because it needs a large number of cases for its material.
Moreover, a third type of research can take place in connection of the "commission" marked in the diagram. It means simply studying and planning the execution of individual tasks, for example preparing for a new type of service, or removing problems in existing service. These case-specific or "intensive" studies seldom produce generally applicable new theory and they will not be discussed in the following.
Subdivisions of the theory of production. Theory is created by doing research, but the difficulty is that in order to be effective, research projects can only study a few limited questions at a time. The number of important questions that any field of industrial production has to deal with, is many times larger than an empirical research project could handle. If somebody thus wants to make a larger compilation - such as a "Handbook of the production of xx" - this has to be made not from empiria, but instead by studying numerous earlier published research reports. Indeed, suchproduct-specific compilations of theory have been made for many important fields of production. They will not be enumerated here, the main reason for it being that they are too numerous and besides they often soon lose their actuality because of the swift development of manufacturing technology.
The goal of manufacture is another possibility of categorizing theory of manufacture. There are only a few important types of goals of production that have attracted the interest of researchers, which means that by studying them it will be easier to get a good total view on the present theory of production than by perusing hundreds of handbooks of different products. These often used points of view in the current theory of production include:

Technology of production

Almost all products today are made with special machinery, and each of these machines operates on the basis of a specific technology, i.e. on a base of knowledge about the specific productive operation. An overview of the various technologies related to a given type of products usually follows the typical process of manufacture. For example, clothing technology can be said to consist of the following sections, each of which describes a major phase in the process:
  • The technology of fibres: the methods of collecting and cleaning natural fibres, of extruding synthetic fibres, of finishing fibres with the methods of mercerizing, easy-care or antishrink, and of blending fibres.
  • The technology of yarns: spinning, assembling filament yarns, folding, cabling, and the fabrication of fancy or textured yarns.
  • The technology of textile construction, such as weaving, knitting, braiding, stitch bonding, laminating, or nonwoven techniques.
  • The technology of textile finishing: dyeing, printing, and mechanical finishing such as raising, pleating or shrinking.
  • The technology of cutting, inclusive of pattern construction, grading and lay planning.
  • The technology of sewing. There are special machines for lockstitch, chain stitch, blind stitch, flat seam, buttonholes etc.
  • The technology of pressing and fusing.
Of course, for any given type of clothing the list of relevant technology can be shorter or longer than the general model given above.
The technological theory that exists for each productive operation consists, first of all, of data that define the role of the operation in the total production process. These data concern above all the capacity of each machine, its reliability, ease of use and other aspects of usability and, when relevant, the emission of chemicals. Besides, theory includes the instructions of using the machinery, written mostly by the constructors of these machines. Sometimes these instructions have been complemented by studies of occupational safety or methods engineering, carried out by the makers of the machinery or by the company that is using them.

Economy of production

The economic study of production aims at finding an optimum between benefits and expenditures of manufacture. For finding an optimum, several statistics are used, such as productivity and profitability, seeOptimizing Production. In economics most elements of production are measured as monetary variables, which makes it possible to construct an economical image or projection of the manufacturing process, as has been made in the lower half of the diagram below.
Process of production
Instruments of economic management include budgeting the incomes and expenditures of production, setting objectives for the productivity of the most important operations; follow-up, measurement and reporting of all of these; and comparing the reported statistics to the agreed objectives.
Productivity Standards are a handy instrument when setting targets. They define the productivity of normal good pace of work, measured as work hours per manufactured unit, under various circumstances. These standards can then be used in work planning and possibly for defining work incentives or the wages for work contracts. The statistics to base the standard on can be obtained either from the factory's own files, or in co-operation between several or all the industries in a country, in a given branch of manufacturing.
Management by objectives is an arrangement where each employee agrees with his or her superior on the objectives for the next period's work in advance. The objectives are mostly economic. In this way the supervisor can clearly express which aspects in the activity are important from the company's point of view, and the employee gets more freedom in planning how the work is done. This arrangement persuades both parties to contemplate the purpose of the work and the means that are most effective to fulfil the agreed goals.
Management by objectives became very popular at the end of 20 century. Its weak point is that it is too easy to overlook quality of the products and other such goals of production that cannot easily be measured, which means that these goals should receive the special attention of any researcher that assists in developing a system of management by objectives.

Quality systems

Many large industries today have a quality system, a special arrangement for the task of defining and steering the quality of production. It usually consists of:
  • A document on the policy of quality, as approved by the management
  • A quality handbook (or the equivalent on a network)
  • A certificate of the quality system, issued by an official body
  • Quality objectives for each product
  • Quality control
    • routines to guarantee the right quality of the products
    • quality inspection
    • corrective actions.
Quality systems are described in the standard ISO 8402 and in the series of standards ISO 9000. Most countries also have a system of official certification of those companies where a standardized quality system is operative.
Regardless of what the company says in advertisements, the target of quality is in practice seldom set at highest possible, because attaining it in every finished product would perhaps cost too much. Instead, the company often wishes to define an optimal level of quality and marks out how it shall be obtained in production. These are defined by researchers, and the management of the company then approves the targets for production.
A much less complicated method for improving the quality of production is the quality circle, a Japanese method in which each ordinary work team at a plant discusses, perhaps weekly, the possibilities of improving the quality of the products and of minimizing the errors and losses in production. Available means for making these improvements consist mainly of rearranging the working routines of the team itself, though improvements elsewhere can be proposed, too, such as better raw material or less complicated details of the product.

Timing of production

The goal in time scheduling of manufacture is to integrate all the tasks in the chain of production so that no unnecessary waiting occurs and each task is given enough time but no more. Methods of scheduling include the standards of productivity and task programming techniques such as Gantt and PERT diagrams, like the diagram below, and the critical path method.
PERT diagram
Explicit scheduling is indispensable especially in the case that the product consists of several parts that have to be made in different places. Besides, in many fields of production the company gets an advantage over competitors if it can deliver the product quickly. This goal can sometimes be achieved by concurrent engineering, i.e. overlapping some phases of the production, as in the Gantt diagram below.
Overlapping tasks
Setting targets for timing is a powerful technique of management because it is easy to define exact timing targets and follow them up. Targets thus often are attained successfully, but there is the usual risk of management by objectives - forgetting those goals that cannot be measured.
Another trap to be avoided in programming is that in the initial enthusiasm of a project the objective for timing can become too tight, which can then spoil the possibilities for doing high-quality work. Especially the design phase of products often necessitates a period - the length of which may be impossible to foretell - of subconscious maturing of the proposal, and if it is not allowed an optimal design proposal is perhaps never found.

Logistics of production

The locality where a product is sold nearly always differs from the place of obtaining the raw material, which means that production entails much transportation of raw material and products in various stages of completion. The costs of transportation can be minimized by careful planning.
Storage is another type of secondary activity to manufacturing that brings about costs. Most products are made in several stages which are carried out in different places with various machines, the capacities of which per hour differ. It thus cannot be avoided to have some buffer storage between the different phases of production. It can also be invaluable when a machine must temporarily be halted, and besides you cannot count on that the sales always continue at a constant tempo.
The science of logistics can help in planning the production process and avoiding unnecessary cost of transportation and storage. Theoretical tools for this task are algorithms and computer programs.

Ecology of production

Ecology of production studies the flows of materials that result from making, using - and perhaps also discarding - various products and develops methods for minimizing the negative effects to the environment, such as the use of materials, pollution and production of waste. In manufacture there are many possibilities to diminish the use of raw materials and toxic processes. In doing so, you should also keep in mind the environmental effects during the product's use and final discarding, such as can be seen in the diagram below.
Ecology of Manufacture
The ecological theory of manufacturing is also discussed on another page, under the title Ecology of Manufacture.

Occupational safety and health

In the study of ergonomics or "human factors engineering" the following straining and risk factors of work are discussed:
  • mechanical dangers, such as sharp and mobile parts of machines and products
  • physical factors, like heat, electricity, noise and shaking
  • chemical factors, the risk of fires included
  • biological hazards, e.g. bacteria
  • physiological hazards, like lifting heavy objects
  • psychological factors, e.g. loneliness and monotony of work, or, on the other hand, excessive noise.
The theory of occupational health and safety includes allowable limits for all the above-mentioned factors, as well as the methods for measuring them and their harmful effects. All industrial plants in developed countries are subject to periodical control of these topics.

Motivation and psychology of work

Many of the targets of production that have been enumerated above, are normally set by the management without discussing them neither with the employees nor with their delegates such as shop stewards. The result often is that many employees fail to understand why a target - which can be arduous to achieve - is important for the company, their motivation to work diminish, and they perhaps consider leaving their jobs. Lately several researchers have tried to find out what topics really are important for the employees.
Frederick Herzberg et al. found (1959) that human motivation factors fall into two groups: "dissatisfiers", and "satisfiers". These are not simply opposites, but rather like sensations in the same way as pain and pleasure. The strongest satisfying factors, or motivators, all had to do directly with the person's particular job:
  • results, achievements
  • recognition
  • work itself, work as an interesting activity
  • responsibility
  • advancement.
Potentially negative factors in motivation are:
  • company policy and administration
  • supervision
  • pay
  • interpersonal relations
  • working conditions
The manager should see to it that these do not annoy the worker, but even when they are arranged ideally they alone cannot motivate the worker. That is why Herzberg did not call them "motivators" butmaintenance factors or hygiene factors.
On the basis of the theory by Herzberg et al., hundreds of surveys have been conducted at various work places. M. Scott Myers interviewed 282 workers at a Texas Instruments plant, concluding that the classification proposed by Herzberg was valid there as well. On the right in the picture below, you will find the percentages of various motivation factors. It can be seen that some factors are almost exclusively positive, whereas others are negative, and some are both. It was also found that workers could to a certain extent be divided into two groups: those to whom it was more important to receive plenty of positive motivation, and others to whom avoiding negative motivation factors was more important (motivation seekers vs. maintenance seekers).
Motivation factors
Research of motivation, or "human factors" of work has since continued until our day, and on the basis of its findings many improvements have been made in the conditions of work. Nevertheless, the satisfaction of employees has not generally increased. The reason perhaps is that the expectations of employees have ascended simultaneously.

Theory of autonomous groups

Many people have today great confidence on science, and when encountering a problem they often think that the best method is starting a project and hiring a competent researcher. However, there is still an alternative method, albeit ancient, where the existing team itself takes care of its working methods and updates them so that problems never spring up or, when they do, they are taken care of and removed. Such an autonomous team itself detects the sprouting problem, works out a remedy for it and modifies accordingly the working routines of the team. When the team belongs to a larger organization, great changes in its operation must first be accepted by the management and those other departments that are involved, of course.
Often cited advantages of autonomous activity are:
  • Procedures of work that have been developed by the team itself are often better than those developed by outsiders, because it is the members of the group that know the problem and its alternative solutions the best. The risk of omitting important viewpoints diminishes.
  • People today expect to have a right to deal with their own problems. When methods of work have to be modified, those changes found by the group itself will be accepted easily; the group will be willing to work for something on their own, and commit themselves to it.
  • All the participants will profit in the form of mental growth. In the future, the group will also be able to recognize problems and deal with them on their own.
The theory and practice of autonomous groups was first developed by Kurt Lewin (1890-1947). They are especially useful in the case that a permanent team of an organization has encountered so difficult problems in their daily work that the team or its leader cannot solve them. A suitable method in this case is Action Research, the theory of which is explained in the paragraph Action Research and Theory.
Action research can be seen as medicine for an accidental illness of team work, but smaller doses of the same medicine can be used for preventing a future illness in the normal daily work of a team. This would mean regular joint discussions which guarantee that every member of the team really understands the collective purpose of the work and is willing, for its benefit, to modify his or her own activity when needed. Principles for such collective discussions can be found under the title "Democratic Debate".

Exchange Rates - Introduction & Overview

AuthorGeoff Riley  Last updated: Sunday 23 September, 2012

Introduction

Currencies are traded in foreign exchange markets and the volume of money bought and sold is huge! Daily foreign exchange market turnover averaged $4 trillion in 2010, 20% higher than in 2007.
An exchange rate is the price of one currency in terms of another – in other words, the purchasing power of one currency against another.
Exchange rates are an important instrument of monetary policy

Measuring the exchange rate

Exchange rates are expressed in various ways:
Spot Exchange Rate - the spot rate is the rate for a currency at today’s market prices
Forward Exchange Rate - a forward rate involves the delivery of currency at a specified time in the future at an agreed rate. Companies wanting to reduce risks from exchange rate volatility can buy their currency ‘forward’ on the market
Bi-lateral Exchange Rate - the rate at which one currency can be traded against another. Examples include: $/DM, Sterling/US Dollar, $/YEN or Sterling/Euro
Effective Exchange Rate Index (EER) - a weighted index of sterling's value against a basket of currencies the weights are based on the importance of trade between the UK and each country.
Real Exchange Rate - this is the ratio of domestic price indices between two countries. A rise in the real exchange rate implies a worsening of competitiveness for a country.

Exchange rate systems

A country can decide the type of exchange rate system that they want to follow.
SystemMain CharacteristicsRecent UK History
Free Floating Exchange Rate
The value of a currency is determined purely by demand and supply of the currency
Trade flows and capital flows affect the exchange rate under a floating system
There is no target for the exchange rate and no intervention in the market by the central bank
Sterling has floated since the UK suspended membership of the ERM in September 1992
The Bank of England has not intervened to influence the pound’s value since it became independent
Managed Floating Exchange Rate
Value of the currency is determined by market demand for and supply of the currency
Some currency market intervention might be considered as part of demand management (e.g. a desire for a lower currency to boost exports)
Governments normally engage in managed floating if not part of a fixed exchange rate system. Managed floating was a policy pursued in the UK from 1973-1990
Semi-Fixed Exchange Rates
Exchange rate is given a specific target. The currency can move between permitted bands of fluctuation on a day-to-day basis
Interest rates are set at a level necessary to keep the exchange rate within target range – or direct intervention in the FOREX market
Re-valuations are seen as a last resort
The UK operated a semi-fixed system from October 1990 - September 1992 when a member of the ERM. Sterling was eventually forced out of the ERM by a wave of speculative selling
Fully-Fixed Exchange Rates
The exchange rate is pegged and there are no fluctuations from the central rate
A country can automatically improve its competitiveness by reducing its costs below that of other countries – knowing that the exchange rate will remain stable
Several countries operate with fixed exchange rates or currency pegs. The Ivory Coast Franc is pegged to the Euro, with the French Treasury guaranteeing convertibility. This facilitates exchange rate and price stability. The peg is not threatening international competitiveness given the low inflation rate in the Ivory Coast.

Countries with floating exchange rates

The Case for Floating Exchange Rates
The main arguments for adopting a floating exchange rate system are as follows:
  1. Reduced need for currency reserves: There is no exchange rate target so there is little requirement for a central bank to hold foreign currency reserves to use during intervention
  2. Useful instrument of economic adjustment: For example depreciation of the exchange rate can provide a boost to exports and stimulate growth during a recession and/or when there is a risk of deflation. A good example of this is Poland whose currency the Zloty depreciated against the Euro in 2009-10 which helped Poland to avoid recession during the global financial crisis. Indeed Poland was one of the few EU countries to avoid a slump during this difficult period.
  3. Partial automatic correction for a trade deficit: Floating exchange rates can help when the balance of payments is in disequilibrium – i.e. a large current account deficit puts downward pressure on the exchange rate, which should help exports and make imports relatively more expensive. Much depends on the price elasticity of demand and supply of exports and the price elasticity of demand for imports – see the later section on the Marshall-Lerner condition and the J-curve effect
  4. Less opportunity for currency speculation: The absence of an exchange rate target might reduce the risk of currency speculation. Speculators tend to attack weaker currencies where a government is trying to maintain a fixed exchange rate out of line with macro-economic fundamentals.
  5. Freedom (autonomy) for domestic monetary policy: The absence of an exchange rate target allows policy interest rates to be set to meet domestic aims such as controlling inflation or stabilising the business cycle. Countries locked into a single currency system such as the Euro do not have the same freedom to manage interest rates to meet their key macroeconomic aims. This has become obvious as one of the limitations of being inside the Euro during the current crisis.
Floating exchange rates have their disadvantages – some of these are discussed next when we look at the advantages of fixed systems. One of the main disadvantages is that floating currencies can be volatile which makes doing businesses harder. An unexpected fall in the exchange rate can also be a cause of rising inflation.
Countries with managed floating exchange rates

The Case for Fixed Exchange Rates

The main arguments for adopting a fixed exchange rate system are as follows:
  1. Trade and Investment: Currency stability can promote trade and capital investment because of less currency risk. Overseas investors will be more certain and confident that the returns from their investments will not be destroyed by sudden fluctuations in the value of a currency.
  2. Some flexibility permitted: Some adjustment to the fixed currency parity is possible if the case becomes unstoppable (i.e. the occasional devaluation or revaluation of the currency if agreement can be reached with other countries). Some countries are tempted to engage in competitive devaluations and this threatens the outbreak of “currency wars”.
  3. Reductions in the costs of currency hedging: Businesses have to spend less on currency hedging if they know that the currency will maintain a stable value in the foreign exchange markets.
  4. Disciplines on domestic producers: A stable currency acts as a discipline on producers to keep costs and prices down and may encourage attempts to raise productivity and focus on research and innovation. In the long run, with a fixed exchange rate, one country’s inflation must fall into line with another (and thus put competitive pressures on prices and real wages)
  5. Reinforcing gains in comparative advantage: If one country has a fixed exchange rate with another, then differences in relative unit labour costs will be reflected in the growth of exports and imports. Consider the example of China and the United States. For several years China pegged the Yuan against the dollar. Until July 2005 the exchange rate was fully fixed; since then the Chinese have allowed only a gradual depreciation of the dollar against the Yuan. Most estimates indicate that the Chinese currency is persistently undervalued against the dollar. This makes Chinese products cheaper and has led to numerous calls from US manufacturers for the Chinese to be persuaded to switch to a floating exchange rate or to adjust their currency by appreciating against the dollar.